Costs
& Outlook
eFuels have been extensively researched – the scientific and technical expertise for a market ramp-up is available. However, the necessary political framework conditions are currently lacking to enable eFuels production on an industrial scale, such as CO2-based taxation of fuels, or ambitious quotas for the fuel sector. If the market conditions and production rules are right, eFuels can start to be produced in 2030 in large scale and steadily ramped-up to allow the complete replacement of conventional fuels in 2050
With increased quantities of eFuels being added gradually to conventional fuels, and production costs falling owing to economies of scale, eFuels will be affordable for consumers at every stage as well as for sectors where defossilisation is difficult, such as aviation and maritime transport (hard-to abate sectors). According to the German institute of economics, an admixture of 5% eFuels would increase the overall fuel price at petrol filling station by only 7 ct/l. The price projection of €5 or more per liter refers to demonstration plants. This representation is incorrect for industrial production. Independent scientific studies are forecasting production costs and transportation to Europe around 2 € per liter diesel equivalent in 2030.
Until 2050, Climate neutrality thus remains affordable for everyone.
Source: Fraunhofer ISE
Due to the lack of a political framework, eFuel plants do not yet exist on an industrial scale. However, the technologies and components are already sufficiently known and researched. The first plants producing more than 500 million liters per year have been announced for 2026. By now, 214 GW of installed capacity of hydrogen projects have been announced worldwide. Nevertheless, to make an immediate contribution to the fight against climate change and to support the market introduction of eFuels, our political proposals include all synthetic fuels that comply with the sustainability criteria of the "Renewable Energy Directive (RED)". We need an immediate scaling of all possible sustainable energy carriers. In addition to electricity-based fuels, these include sustainable biofuels. Such sustainable biofuels come from the ever growing and innovating pool of sustainable raw materials, which are defined in the RED.